Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Hamas win in PLC and impact on peace process

So some of the worst fears of Israel and US have come true. In the recently concluded Palestinian elections the voters had booted out the incumbent Fatah government and overwhelmingly elected Hamas to lead the new government. The West and Israel were left with an egg on their faces because the elections were free and fair.The will of the people have been expressed and the west apparently should not have any compunction in dealing with a democratically elected government. But here lies the rub. This government is headed by Hamas which is a designated terrorist organization. and has vowed to drive Israel into the sea. Since the US and its allies can’t very stop Hamas from forming the next government without exposing themselves,they have done the next best thing-stop the flow of funds whish Israel collects in the form of various taxes for the P.A which is used by them to pay their 150000 employees and ostensibly for use in welfare projects.In reality this money has fuelled corruption among the Fatah politicians.

But for the past year their has been no suicide attack by Hamas. This indicates that they might be amenable to discussion. A recent poll showed that about 75% of the Palestinians are reconciled with the idea of Israel and want the cycle of violence to stop so that they can get on with day to day life. This could be a good opportunity for starting a meaningful dialogue but with Israel continuing to build the wall cutting off Palestinian settlements and cutting off finances while Washington looks the other way, the chances are bleak. As regards the withdrawals even though Sharon had taken a risk in ordering the army what was not noted was that in other areas new settlements were established. These withdrawals were mainly tactical because the abandoned settlements were deep into Palestinian territory and were vulnerable to mortar attacks and bombings. Make no mistake about it-Israel continues its death grip on Palestine and with the arrival of Hamas will harden its position, no matter which Prime Minister is selected after Sharon. This mess is going to get messier, especially as powers like Russia and EU appear reluctant to support a perceived terrorist group, even though it had won the confidence of the people which it claims to represent. The Middle East mess is going to get messier.

And what about India.? The current government has nurtured relations with Israel which NDA had developed. But some sections of the Congress and the Communists can’t seem to forget the old days when Israel was Uncle Sam’s stooge and Palestenians were bhai-bhai.The PM must walk a tightrope between these two positions so that our interests are safeguarded. Since India has a limited influence with both sides, it should not be too hard.

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