Bombing in Bombay

I've been neglecting this blog for such a long time that now it is ancient history in the world of current affairs.So much has happened since my last post.I think since terrorism I would confine this post to terrorism,rather terrorism in India.

Ever since the economic growth of India,centers of economic activity have been as attractive to terrorists as symbols of India and sensitive military installations.In this context Mumbai,formerly Bombay needs to be mentioned .The city has always been the economic nerve center of the country since it was founded.And in recent years terrorists have been attracted to the city like bees to a honeypot.And their attentions have put a strain on the Indian economy in terms of safety concerns.

Lets talk about the 90s.In 1993 after the Babri masjid demolition Bombay was the target of bombings where several places of economic significance like the stock exchange and head offices of several large organizations were bombed. A court has recently sentenced four accused to varying terms of punishment.But the case would most probanbly drag on till the SC.Again riots and some other randoms bombings have continued to wrack the city.But in each of these cases the main perpretators were identified pretty quickly.

On July 7,several bombs exploded almost simultaneously in the first class compartments of several local trains.This was eerily similar to the London tube bombings.It was peak hour and the trains were filled with office goers coming back home.What was different about this attack was that for the first time terrorists had targetted the life line of Mumbai,its local train service.And this attack was on people,the average Shyam Kumar.And after so much time the police has been stumbling in the dark regarding the identity of the principal actors.Casualties were 800 killed and thousands injured.But more worrying was the fact that it was almost impossible to secure this mass transit system.Anybody can keep a bag stuffed with bombs on the luggage rack.And in the days of fidayeen who believe dying in jehad would send them to paradise the possibilities are frightening.When a person does not respect their own life,it is meaningless to expect that person to respect the sanctity of life of others.

There are no easy solutions to this problem.Some would argue for an American style of deterrence and Big Brother surveillance.True there has been no attack on the US after 9/11.But this has come at the cost of antagonizing a lot of people.India is a far more diverse country and that method won't work here.Also India's neighbourhood is not very friendly.The US has no such problems next door.Increaing And revamping the intelligence apparatus is definitely going to help.But whatever the solution is ,it must be tailored to our specific needs.No copy paste please.And we need a solution,fast.

Nepal-A new start?

Since my last post, a lot of things have happened in our neighborhood,inside our country and also internationally. The situation in Nepal deserver our special attention,not only because of our strategic interests there but also because India shares an open border.

The whole mess started when King Gyanendra dismissed the democratically elected government of Sher Bahadur Deuba on Feb 1 2005 and assumed full executive powers in the name of combating the Maoist insurgency which had claimed over 12000 lives.All fundamental rights were suspended,leaders kept under house arrest and press muffled.Internatonal condemnation was unanimous and countries like U.S and U.K along with India were putting pressure on the king to restore democracy.The Maoists and the political parties also sunk their differences and decided to launch a unified movement to unseat constitutional monarchy and bring a republican system of government.

While the entire Nepali society was up in arms,the international community tightened the screws.India stopped arms deliveries to tne RNA while a threat to cut off aid was also used.For a while Nepal tried to cosy up to Pakistan and China but finally seeing the writing on the wall the king gave up executive powers and gave the call to reassemble the parliament.

Even though this was one of the demands of the seven party alliance leading the protests the problems related to the maoist's are still not solved.Many Nepalese now want the abolition of monarchy.Powerful sections in the Indian establishment and the Indian army want the king to remain.Also by playing on Hindu sentiments the King has a lot of sympthasisers in the RSS including the BJP. So Manmohan Singh has to tread carefully on this issue especially since a section of disgruntled Congressmen like Former foreign minister Natwar Singh has been taking potshots openly at him.In the few months ahead ,Nepal is at crossroads.

Nuclear deal and Dubya

I should have written this some time ago, but the topic was a hot potato and needed some cooling -off period. Make no mistake about this-this deal, along with Pokhran -2 is one of the most significant milestones of Indian foreign policy in recent times. Both of them have the potential to get us an entry into the N-club. Maybe that sounds like too mundane for most of Indians as the prevailing view is that we ought to automatically gain an entrance and we have been handed out a raw deal. But examined in proper context and we will begin to appreciate the amount of political will which it took for both the leaders to finalize the deal.

In the 1960s the Eisenhower administration along with the other nuclear powers negotiated the NPT treaty .This was viewed by India as nuclear apartheid and India did not sign it. Hence When India carried out the tests it was isolated internationally. But with the passage of time, the world began to recognize India’s impeccable non-proliferation record compared to China and Pakistan. Also with economic growth the energy needs of India increased and being an exclusively oil importing country, there was a fear that increased demands would drive up oil prices which would have been disastrous for the global economy. So George W Bush, in a significant change of policy decided to offer a civil nuclear deal to India to ease pressure on oil prices. It was signed on July last year when Manmohan Singh went on his US trip.

There was a considerable outcry at home and abroad when the deal was signed. The opposition at home was lead by the Left who were supporting the govt from outside and the nuclear scientists from the DAE.The Left’s protested because they had a long history of America bashing and felt that talking to them would spell the end of NAM and India’s ‘independent’ foreign policy which consisted of kowtowing to the Soviets. There were some unscrupulous politicians who felt that they could pander to their Muslim votebank by showing black flags to Bush at Delhi while they eagerly felll head over heels for an invitation to the state banquet in honor of the visiting dignitary.The scientists were more concerned about technical issues and they felt that this treaty would give Uncle Sam an excuse to interfere in India’s nuclear R&D activities and also would cripple India’s strategic nuclear deterrence.The opposition In the Us was spearheaded by India baiters in the Congress and NPT traditionalists who felt that transferring N fuel and technology to a non NPT signatory would encourage proliferation.

The deal was scheduled to be finalized on Bush’s India visit at the beginning of March.But the talks threatened to break down several times and at times it almost seemed that the deal would fall through.In fact as the Air Force One was winging to India,negotiations were continuing online.Finally after hard face to face negotiations,India agreed to keep under safeguards 14 of its 22 reactors present and being constructed .The fast breeder reactors ,which were the sticking points were left out ,as desired by the scientific community.Now the only steps that remain is to convince the US Congress and the Nuclear

Suppliers Group to agree to the treaty.Even though this is Bush’s job Indians should do all they can to help.One right step has been the dismantling of the CIRUS reactor which was for long a sticking point because it supplied weapon grade plutonium even though originally imported for electricity generation.This has demonstrated India’s commitment to separate civilian and military facilities.

The statement by the chief of IAEA welcoming the nuclear treaty has also increased chances of its acceptance among the various stakeholders. This treaty will enable India to gain recognition for its decades long nuclear programme and also help in getting newer technologies since it was working in isolation.It is a win win situation for all the signatories. Watch this space for updates

Hamas win in PLC and impact on peace process

So some of the worst fears of Israel and US have come true. In the recently concluded Palestinian elections the voters had booted out the incumbent Fatah government and overwhelmingly elected Hamas to lead the new government. The West and Israel were left with an egg on their faces because the elections were free and fair.The will of the people have been expressed and the west apparently should not have any compunction in dealing with a democratically elected government. But here lies the rub. This government is headed by Hamas which is a designated terrorist organization. and has vowed to drive Israel into the sea. Since the US and its allies can’t very stop Hamas from forming the next government without exposing themselves,they have done the next best thing-stop the flow of funds whish Israel collects in the form of various taxes for the P.A which is used by them to pay their 150000 employees and ostensibly for use in welfare projects.In reality this money has fuelled corruption among the Fatah politicians.

But for the past year their has been no suicide attack by Hamas. This indicates that they might be amenable to discussion. A recent poll showed that about 75% of the Palestinians are reconciled with the idea of Israel and want the cycle of violence to stop so that they can get on with day to day life. This could be a good opportunity for starting a meaningful dialogue but with Israel continuing to build the wall cutting off Palestinian settlements and cutting off finances while Washington looks the other way, the chances are bleak. As regards the withdrawals even though Sharon had taken a risk in ordering the army what was not noted was that in other areas new settlements were established. These withdrawals were mainly tactical because the abandoned settlements were deep into Palestinian territory and were vulnerable to mortar attacks and bombings. Make no mistake about it-Israel continues its death grip on Palestine and with the arrival of Hamas will harden its position, no matter which Prime Minister is selected after Sharon. This mess is going to get messier, especially as powers like Russia and EU appear reluctant to support a perceived terrorist group, even though it had won the confidence of the people which it claims to represent. The Middle East mess is going to get messier.

And what about India.? The current government has nurtured relations with Israel which NDA had developed. But some sections of the Congress and the Communists can’t seem to forget the old days when Israel was Uncle Sam’s stooge and Palestenians were bhai-bhai.The PM must walk a tightrope between these two positions so that our interests are safeguarded. Since India has a limited influence with both sides, it should not be too hard.