Mayhem in Guwahati

The streets of Guwahati, especially near my home turned into battlegrounds last Friday. The combatants were Adivasi students vs local residents and the police. The issue was supposedly one of those demonstrations to call for the Scheduled Tribe status for the adivasis, most of whom had migrated from states in Central India to work in the newly set up tea gardens of Assam. These demonstrations are a regular fixture, and I have been caught in a few of them myself. At best, they cause traffic snarls and at worst a day long shutdown of business, a non governmental curfew. Which is why everyone has been caught off guard by this particular orgy of violence.

From what the newspapers reported of this incident, the sequence of events seemed simple enough to follow- permission was sought and received from the authorities to conduct a demonstration near the assembly complex. The authorities figured a crowd of 300 people, sitting a relay hunger strike and going back peacefully in the evening. They did not figure that 5000 people would be there, some of them armed with bows and arrows, drunk and prepped for violence. The marchers burned vehicles and shops, beat up people and created mayhem on their way to the state assembly. The police, initially 50 men strong collected their wits at the last moment and beat back the protestors with teargas and lathis. The locals meanwhile were incensed by destruction of their property and turned on the marchers in full fury, where they were aided and abetted by the police. The official toll was 1 killed and 200 wounded, while unofficial figures point to something like 15 dead and about 500 injured. The mob violence was flashed on national TV, and the image of a 15 year old girl stripped naked and chased for half a kilometre has been one of the most horrifying images seared into the Assamese psyche, since the images of the Nellie massacre in 1983.

What provoked this? Lets look at beyond the eye for an eye tooth for a tooth mindset. Most of the injured were women and children, and it would take a leap of imagination to imagine them as drunks running amok. What is plausible is that the damage were done by paid goons, who made themselves scarce after doing the damage, leaving the main body to bear the brunt. Who would be their paymasters? Politicians are the obvious answer, and they could be in the ruling side, or in the opposition. The truth is most likely to be obfuscated under commissions of inquiry, while another new dimension is going to be added to Assam’s already volatile, and sometimes bloody mix of minority and tribal conflict. Cry, my beloved country.

Pakocracy

For about a month or so, Pakistan has been boiling.It's not that it was peaceful before; there has been violence associated with the Pakistani society ever since it was born. The latest spell of violence involves the convoluted games played put from the drawing rooms of Lahore to the mean streets of Karachi. Perverz Musharraf, already beleaguered by the rise of the Taliban in western Pakistan and a assertive judiciary led by Iftikar Chaudhury is fighting the only way he knows- hit first and hit hard. The first step was turning back the exiled former premier Nawaz Sharif who is a potential rival with his large support base. Sharif was not allowed to get out of the airport, and though there was widespread international and internal condemnation, Musharraf stuck to his guns.

The declaration of Emergency was the second step. This was imposed three weeks ago, before the Supreme Court of Pakistan was to hear a challenge against Musharraf's reelection as president while retaining the post of the army chief. 5 judges were imprisoned and a rubber stamp court proclaimed Musharraf's appointment as president. Pakistan has also been kicked out of the Commonwealth, and though think tanks in the US are making noises, Dubya is not going to drop him anytime soon. Meanwhile, Benazir Bhutto is preparing herself for a the upcoming elections by focussing on radio and TV as mediums instead of the traditional rallies, owing to threats on her life.

Whatever happens in Pakistan will affect India the most. Everybody knows why this is ,and most people agree that democracy is the best thing that should happen to Pakistan. But is Western style democracy really such a great thing? Just check out Afghanistan and Iraq- that brand of democracy has miserably failed.The situation on Afghanistan is deteriorating, and Iraq's situation is worse than ever. The problem is that these societies have their unique systems, and the brand of democracy goes against the very fabric of society. There can be no one size fits all solution, and what works in Western Europe or the US does not work in Asia. India seems to be an exception, though if we dig deep we would see some tweaking being done to the original model here as well.

The Pakistani society is largely feudal and driven by tribal loyalties.This society is conservative, and intensely religious. Concepts like equality of sexes, female suffrage and all men having equal rights are not accepted easily......they were not accepted until the beginning of the last century in Europe and US. The rest of the world is going to take some more time to adopt these ideas, however noble they may sound. As I see it, there is a need for reform in Pakistan. The civil society must lead this. Already they have the leadership of the law community- notice how the demonstrations of the lawyers across the country, supported by people in response to Justice Chaudhury's dismissal and subsequent house arrest resembled the Indian freedom movement.Something like that could happen in Pakistan too, though the world was a lot simpler in 1900s.

As for Musharraf, if her plays his cards right, he could remain the President for some years, without being the army head. Then again, he could be booted out soon, for Allah is definitely not on his side, and with Army gone America could loose patience. But even if he stays, his powers will definitely shrink.

The Enigma of Saddam

It has been quite some time since Saddam was hanged.December 26,2006 to be exact.Saddam Hussein,or more fully ,Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti was and will continue to be alongside Osama bin Laden the symbols of Islamic opposition to the West for a long time to come.Ironic,since he was avowedly secular and had hardly any truck with al Quaeda.His story will be cited as a classic case of a Frankensteinian monster which turned upon its creator,the US in this case.

As a young man Saddam along with the Ba'ath Party was involved in a plot to assasinate Gen Quasim in 1959 who had led a military junta in overthrowing King Faisal II.This was backed by the US.During the Iran Iraq war Saddam used chemical weapons supplied by west German companies while availing financial and military aid from France and the US ,to name a few.Billions of dollars were also dangled as bait to prevent him from joining the Soviet side by the US.

This honeymoon ended only during the first Gulf war when US realized that its interests would suffer if Kuwait came under Iraq.This was in 1991.Under harsh UN sanctions since upto the invasion and consequent toppling of his regime in 2003,the Iraqi society was fragmented and splintered along secterian and ethnic lines.This was manifested in increasing lawlessness,secterian cleansing,private Shiite and Sunni militias and restless Kurds.Meanwhile without any trace of WMDs,the ostensible reason of the invasion or links of the toppled regime with al Quaeda,the view in the Arab street that invasion was an attack on Islam and the Great Satan along with the accursed Jews were hell bent on looting Iraq of her oil,was gaining ground.The situation was compounded by Israel's botched attack on Lebanon and its apparent bruising by Hezbollah.But that is another story.

The trial of Saddam Hussein after his capture by American forces in 2003 was probably the most followed war crime trials after the Nuremberg trials of the Nazis.These trials,and the mrthod of conducting them have raised questions and criticisms of fairplay.Assasination of defence lawyers,removal of the presiding judge midway and the shennanigans of Saddam in the courtroom added up to the challenges.Opinion about his fate was sharply divided in a country which was technically a democracy but practically presented a picture of utter chaos.Saddam had no chance of escaping the verdict of death sentence,but the manner of his hanging and the haste in which the Iraqis went about it certainly had an impression of vendatta.

Saddam Hussein may already have become a matyr.When he was in detention messages attributed to him telling his country to resist the 'invaders' almost invariably led to a spike in violence.In this new war where the battle is fought in cyberspace as much as in the real world the videos of his hanging ,helpfully taken by an Iraqi official and circulated over the Internet were one of the most heavily viewed on sites like Google Video and YouTube.These videos no doubt will be used during sermons in madrassas from UK to Indonesia and the terrorist training camps of South Wazaristan and Afghanistan to further brainwash suicide bombers who would bomb buses and trains in the hopes of entering paradise.And the circle would continue.On the other hand proponents would say that if kept imprisoned Saddam would be the inspiration behind a rash of hijacking and terror acts and his statements ,his mere presence would have kept the pot boiling.The situation was complex and demanded complex solution.Nothing like you-are-with us-or-them type,typical of Bush Jr.

And now with the body count of American combatants about to cross 3000 since major combat was declared ended Dubya decides to increase force levels by more than 20000,a move which many commentators are saying as akin to providing more cannon fodder.America has wrecked the situation very badly,and it seems Vietnam was a walk in the park compared to Iraq.And most likely,at the time I am typing this a suicide bomber has exploded his bomb or Sunnis are gunning down Shias in some part of Iraq,with the US soldiers caught ,and dying in the crossfire along with the common people.

Bombing in Bombay

I've been neglecting this blog for such a long time that now it is ancient history in the world of current affairs.So much has happened since my last post.I think since terrorism I would confine this post to terrorism,rather terrorism in India.

Ever since the economic growth of India,centers of economic activity have been as attractive to terrorists as symbols of India and sensitive military installations.In this context Mumbai,formerly Bombay needs to be mentioned .The city has always been the economic nerve center of the country since it was founded.And in recent years terrorists have been attracted to the city like bees to a honeypot.And their attentions have put a strain on the Indian economy in terms of safety concerns.

Lets talk about the 90s.In 1993 after the Babri masjid demolition Bombay was the target of bombings where several places of economic significance like the stock exchange and head offices of several large organizations were bombed. A court has recently sentenced four accused to varying terms of punishment.But the case would most probanbly drag on till the SC.Again riots and some other randoms bombings have continued to wrack the city.But in each of these cases the main perpretators were identified pretty quickly.

On July 7,several bombs exploded almost simultaneously in the first class compartments of several local trains.This was eerily similar to the London tube bombings.It was peak hour and the trains were filled with office goers coming back home.What was different about this attack was that for the first time terrorists had targetted the life line of Mumbai,its local train service.And this attack was on people,the average Shyam Kumar.And after so much time the police has been stumbling in the dark regarding the identity of the principal actors.Casualties were 800 killed and thousands injured.But more worrying was the fact that it was almost impossible to secure this mass transit system.Anybody can keep a bag stuffed with bombs on the luggage rack.And in the days of fidayeen who believe dying in jehad would send them to paradise the possibilities are frightening.When a person does not respect their own life,it is meaningless to expect that person to respect the sanctity of life of others.

There are no easy solutions to this problem.Some would argue for an American style of deterrence and Big Brother surveillance.True there has been no attack on the US after 9/11.But this has come at the cost of antagonizing a lot of people.India is a far more diverse country and that method won't work here.Also India's neighbourhood is not very friendly.The US has no such problems next door.Increaing And revamping the intelligence apparatus is definitely going to help.But whatever the solution is ,it must be tailored to our specific needs.No copy paste please.And we need a solution,fast.

Nepal-A new start?

Since my last post, a lot of things have happened in our neighborhood,inside our country and also internationally. The situation in Nepal deserver our special attention,not only because of our strategic interests there but also because India shares an open border.

The whole mess started when King Gyanendra dismissed the democratically elected government of Sher Bahadur Deuba on Feb 1 2005 and assumed full executive powers in the name of combating the Maoist insurgency which had claimed over 12000 lives.All fundamental rights were suspended,leaders kept under house arrest and press muffled.Internatonal condemnation was unanimous and countries like U.S and U.K along with India were putting pressure on the king to restore democracy.The Maoists and the political parties also sunk their differences and decided to launch a unified movement to unseat constitutional monarchy and bring a republican system of government.

While the entire Nepali society was up in arms,the international community tightened the screws.India stopped arms deliveries to tne RNA while a threat to cut off aid was also used.For a while Nepal tried to cosy up to Pakistan and China but finally seeing the writing on the wall the king gave up executive powers and gave the call to reassemble the parliament.

Even though this was one of the demands of the seven party alliance leading the protests the problems related to the maoist's are still not solved.Many Nepalese now want the abolition of monarchy.Powerful sections in the Indian establishment and the Indian army want the king to remain.Also by playing on Hindu sentiments the King has a lot of sympthasisers in the RSS including the BJP. So Manmohan Singh has to tread carefully on this issue especially since a section of disgruntled Congressmen like Former foreign minister Natwar Singh has been taking potshots openly at him.In the few months ahead ,Nepal is at crossroads.

Nuclear deal and Dubya

I should have written this some time ago, but the topic was a hot potato and needed some cooling -off period. Make no mistake about this-this deal, along with Pokhran -2 is one of the most significant milestones of Indian foreign policy in recent times. Both of them have the potential to get us an entry into the N-club. Maybe that sounds like too mundane for most of Indians as the prevailing view is that we ought to automatically gain an entrance and we have been handed out a raw deal. But examined in proper context and we will begin to appreciate the amount of political will which it took for both the leaders to finalize the deal.

In the 1960s the Eisenhower administration along with the other nuclear powers negotiated the NPT treaty .This was viewed by India as nuclear apartheid and India did not sign it. Hence When India carried out the tests it was isolated internationally. But with the passage of time, the world began to recognize India’s impeccable non-proliferation record compared to China and Pakistan. Also with economic growth the energy needs of India increased and being an exclusively oil importing country, there was a fear that increased demands would drive up oil prices which would have been disastrous for the global economy. So George W Bush, in a significant change of policy decided to offer a civil nuclear deal to India to ease pressure on oil prices. It was signed on July last year when Manmohan Singh went on his US trip.

There was a considerable outcry at home and abroad when the deal was signed. The opposition at home was lead by the Left who were supporting the govt from outside and the nuclear scientists from the DAE.The Left’s protested because they had a long history of America bashing and felt that talking to them would spell the end of NAM and India’s ‘independent’ foreign policy which consisted of kowtowing to the Soviets. There were some unscrupulous politicians who felt that they could pander to their Muslim votebank by showing black flags to Bush at Delhi while they eagerly felll head over heels for an invitation to the state banquet in honor of the visiting dignitary.The scientists were more concerned about technical issues and they felt that this treaty would give Uncle Sam an excuse to interfere in India’s nuclear R&D activities and also would cripple India’s strategic nuclear deterrence.The opposition In the Us was spearheaded by India baiters in the Congress and NPT traditionalists who felt that transferring N fuel and technology to a non NPT signatory would encourage proliferation.

The deal was scheduled to be finalized on Bush’s India visit at the beginning of March.But the talks threatened to break down several times and at times it almost seemed that the deal would fall through.In fact as the Air Force One was winging to India,negotiations were continuing online.Finally after hard face to face negotiations,India agreed to keep under safeguards 14 of its 22 reactors present and being constructed .The fast breeder reactors ,which were the sticking points were left out ,as desired by the scientific community.Now the only steps that remain is to convince the US Congress and the Nuclear

Suppliers Group to agree to the treaty.Even though this is Bush’s job Indians should do all they can to help.One right step has been the dismantling of the CIRUS reactor which was for long a sticking point because it supplied weapon grade plutonium even though originally imported for electricity generation.This has demonstrated India’s commitment to separate civilian and military facilities.

The statement by the chief of IAEA welcoming the nuclear treaty has also increased chances of its acceptance among the various stakeholders. This treaty will enable India to gain recognition for its decades long nuclear programme and also help in getting newer technologies since it was working in isolation.It is a win win situation for all the signatories. Watch this space for updates

Hamas win in PLC and impact on peace process

So some of the worst fears of Israel and US have come true. In the recently concluded Palestinian elections the voters had booted out the incumbent Fatah government and overwhelmingly elected Hamas to lead the new government. The West and Israel were left with an egg on their faces because the elections were free and fair.The will of the people have been expressed and the west apparently should not have any compunction in dealing with a democratically elected government. But here lies the rub. This government is headed by Hamas which is a designated terrorist organization. and has vowed to drive Israel into the sea. Since the US and its allies can’t very stop Hamas from forming the next government without exposing themselves,they have done the next best thing-stop the flow of funds whish Israel collects in the form of various taxes for the P.A which is used by them to pay their 150000 employees and ostensibly for use in welfare projects.In reality this money has fuelled corruption among the Fatah politicians.

But for the past year their has been no suicide attack by Hamas. This indicates that they might be amenable to discussion. A recent poll showed that about 75% of the Palestinians are reconciled with the idea of Israel and want the cycle of violence to stop so that they can get on with day to day life. This could be a good opportunity for starting a meaningful dialogue but with Israel continuing to build the wall cutting off Palestinian settlements and cutting off finances while Washington looks the other way, the chances are bleak. As regards the withdrawals even though Sharon had taken a risk in ordering the army what was not noted was that in other areas new settlements were established. These withdrawals were mainly tactical because the abandoned settlements were deep into Palestinian territory and were vulnerable to mortar attacks and bombings. Make no mistake about it-Israel continues its death grip on Palestine and with the arrival of Hamas will harden its position, no matter which Prime Minister is selected after Sharon. This mess is going to get messier, especially as powers like Russia and EU appear reluctant to support a perceived terrorist group, even though it had won the confidence of the people which it claims to represent. The Middle East mess is going to get messier.

And what about India.? The current government has nurtured relations with Israel which NDA had developed. But some sections of the Congress and the Communists can’t seem to forget the old days when Israel was Uncle Sam’s stooge and Palestenians were bhai-bhai.The PM must walk a tightrope between these two positions so that our interests are safeguarded. Since India has a limited influence with both sides, it should not be too hard.